Il più grande pilota di Formula 1

Mentre i tifosi ferraristi si dividono tra chi maledice Kimi Raikkonen per aver fatto la pole position davati a Sebastian Vettel e chi, con l'impeccabile logica del tifoso che può modificarsi da gran premio a gran premio, afferma qualcosa del tipo se nel tempio della velocità Raikkonen è arrivato davanti a Vettel, allora Raikkonen è più veloce, vi propongo un paio di articoli che potrebbero aiutare a dirimere la più annosa delle questioni aperte nel mondo della Formula 1: il pilota più veloce di tutti i tempi!

Eichenberger, R., & Stadelmann, D. (2009). Who is the Best Formula 1 Driver?: An Economic Approach to Evaluating Talent. Economic Analysis and Policy, 39(3), 389. doi:10.1016/S0313-5926(09)50035-5

Who is the best formula 1 driver? Until today it was impossible to answer this question because the observable performance of a driver depends both on his talent and the quality of his cars. In this paper, we for the first time separate driver talent from car quality by econometrically analyzing data covering 57 years of Formula 1 racing. Our estimates also control for the number of drivers finishing, technical breakdowns and many other variables that influence race results. While Michael Schumacher is often believed to be the best driver, he is overtaken by Juan Manuel Fangio and Jim Clark.

Phillips, A. J. (2014). Uncovering Formula One driver performances from 1950 to 2013 by adjusting for team and competition effects. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10(2), 261-278. doi:10.1515/jqas-2013-0031

Subjective ratings of the best drivers in the history of Formula One are common, but objective analyses are hampered by the difficulties involved in comparing drivers who raced for different teams and in different eras. Here, we present a new method for comparing performances within and between eras. Using a statistical model, we estimate driver and team contributions to performance, as well as the effects of competition with other drivers. By adjusting for team and competition effects, underlying driver performances are revealed. Using this method, we compute adjusted scoring rates for 1950–2013. Driver performances are then compared using: (i) peak performances for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year intervals; and (ii) number of championships. Overall, these comparisons rank Clark, Stewart, Fangio, Alonso, and Schumacher as the five greatest drivers. We confirm the model’s accuracy by comparing its performance predictions to 2010–2013 lap-time data. The results of the analysis are generally in good agreement with expert opinions regarding driver performances. However, the model also identifies several undervalued and overvalued driver performances, which are discussed. This is the first objective method for comparing Formula One drivers that has yielded sensible results. The model adds a valuable perspective to previous subjective analyses.

Mentre qualcuno di voi immagino già si stia chiedendo se qualcuno di questi sforzi verrà un giorno premiato con un IgNobel, mi preme ricordare che l'autore dell'ultimo articolo, Andrew Phillips, ha spiegato la metodologia applicata in un blog, producendo una dettagliata classifica dei primi sessanta piloti di tutti i tempi. Tra l'altro Andrew è anche un biologo, quindi è abbastanza certo l'approccio scientifico alla materia.

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Lo so. C'è un'altra domanda inespressa che aleggia nell'aria. E per te quale sarebbe il miglior pilota di tutti i tempi? Che domande! Sono tre: Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin e Michael Collins, che non sarà sceso sulla Luna ma ha pilotato il modulo di comando in orbita intorno al nostro satellite.